Obama Has Eight Point Lead Over McCain

From a Harris Poll in Marketwatch:

Senator Barack Obama retains an eight point lead over Senator John McCain among registered voters in the latest Harris Poll, virtually unchanged since the nine point lead he enjoyed in early July.

The most interesting part of the piece is the demographics analysis.

These younger voters better show up to the polls in this election, otherwise we're screwed.

What's also interesting is that McCain just barely captures a majority of the conservative vote (52%).

- Age: Obama's lead is critically dependent on his 33 point lead among Echo Boomers, people under 32 - but they are usually are the least likely generation to actually vote. If they do not vote very heavily in November this would hurt Obama's chances. McCain leads among "Matures," those over 62, by nine points, the generation that is usually the most likely to vote;

-- Gender: There is currently no gender gap in this election. Obama's lead is almost the same among men (+8 points) and women (+10 points);

-- Race: Obama currently wins virtually all the African-American vote (+91) and most of the crucial Hispanic vote (+25) but loses the white vote by eight points. In the past whites were more likely to vote than blacks or Hispanics;

-- Education: In many elections, those with only a high school education or less vote heavily Democratic; in this poll, McCain actually leads by four points. This is the group where Obama's race is most likely to hurt him. Obama leads among those with some college (+16), college graduates (+14) and has his biggest lead among those with post-graduate education (+30). However because more educated people are more likely to vote these findings are not good news for McCain;

-- Income: There is only a modest correlation between income and voting intentions. Obama leads among all income groups, with a 17 point lead among those with less than $35,000 and six points among those earning $75,000 or more;

-- Party Identification: Unsurprisingly, most Democrats prefer Obama (+72) and most Republicans favor McCain (+71). The crucial Independent vote currently tilts toward Obama by 11 points;

-- Political Philosophy: Conservatives favor McCain by 52 points and Liberals favor Obama by 73 points. The very important Moderate vote, a larger group than either Conservatives or Liberals, currently prefers Obama over McCain by 19 points.

Read more here