Time and demographics are not on their side.
As Peggy Noonan wrote in the Wall Street Journal:
What happens to the Republicans in 2008 will likely be dictated by what didn't happen in 2005, and '06, and '07. The moment when the party could have broken, on principle, with the administration – over the thinking behind and the carrying out of the war, over immigration, spending and the size of government – has passed. What two years ago would have been honorable and wise will now look craven. They're stuck.
The Bush/Cheney war has made sure that college-age youth, aka "The Millennials" have been pushed to the Democratic party (that, along with the Internet and its values of freedom of expression and color-blind online communities).
And note that when I refer to the Republican Party, I do not mean conservatism.
As Noonan wrote:
"This was a real wakeup call for us," someone named Robert M. Duncan, who is chairman of the Republican National Committee, told the New York Times. This was after Mississippi. "We can't let the Democrats take our issues." And those issues would be? "We can't let them pretend to be conservatives," he continued. Why not? Republicans pretend to be conservative every day.
Racial demogaphics are such that the Republican strategy of demonizing Latinos in the illegal immigration debate means that the majority of this electorate leans Democratic as well. And we all know that the browning of America is what the future holds.
The sad part for the Republicans, is that a lot of these black/brown voters would self-identify as socially conservative. A sizable number of black voters are churchgoing Christians, many Latinos are pro-life. However, the race based tactics of the Southern strategy and the nasty anti-immigrant tone have pushed these voters over to the Democratic side. (Really, the Republicans have majorly blown it with the Latino vote by choosing to pander to anti-immigrant fears. They might have been able to make greater inroads had it not been for that.)
The Republican Party has played the card of being the party of the white majority for a long time now. That hand depends on an disinterested, apathetic electorate with low black voter turnout in the South, along with a youth vote that doesn't show up to the polls.
However, that is not the case in this election. Black voters are excited and enthused. And a Southern strategy based on race-baiting and attacking either Barack Obama or his wife, Michelle, will only serve to piss black people off and make them even more determined to get to kick out the racists.
And we've all seen the bright, shining, hopeful faces of those young college-aged voters. These are voters who will have the time and energy to canvass, who will have the passion to sway their undecided family members. They will be educated and articulate about the issues, and will be an attractive face for the Democratic Party.
The main reason the Republicans are doomed, however, is because they have neglected to reach across the aisle into other ethnic groups. They've been playing their white race card so long, they don't have a credible Latino, African-American or Asian (or even a woman candidate!) and until they can grow a few (it has to be more than one) in their ranks, they will be at a disadvantage for many years to come.
Basically, the Republicans are screwed...and they know it.
4 comments:
I would love to agree, but I'm not as optimistic. Youth voters have very low turnout, and are a small part of the electorate. While turnout will almost certainly be record high this year, it might not be enough.
Then again, one election is not the end of the world. The massive following of Ron Paul proves that many people have wised up to the fact that Republicans aren't real conservatives.
The greatest thing about Barack's new presidential campaign is his willingness to get into the ring and challenge the Republicans on their two dimensional, paper thin caricatures. Even the media has now followed suit, with Chris Mathews in particular. As the discourse rises above flag pins, Michelle and Rev. Wright, Barack will shine even more and crush the empty fearmongering that has well served the Republican party.
This is what we have been waiting for. Thank you, Barack and company.
Richard Nixon noted that the public memory is about six months long. I've been around a long time observing politics and I basically agree.
Outreach and inclusion has to be an ongoing process. And if the economic hole is not filled in within two years, voters will be tossing out our Dems.
So I wouldn't ring the death knell yet. Obama and the DNC and us activists must keep pursuing those demographics and delivering on policy. If we do, by the election of 2016, we could gain the big prize that could permanently weaken their electoral college base: Texas.
If the Republicans think they can regain the White House after the next four or eight years of Barack Obama’s (DEM) Presidency, they are basically and simply fooling themselves. By that time, the demographic makeup in the United States will be even less white than it is now, which would make it even more difficult for the GOPers to win nationwide regardless of how many setbacks the Democrats would undergo from time to time. Such trend is very likely to continue. Not even their best man, ex-Florida Governor Jeb Bush (REP), who has a fairly strong appeal among certain Hispanic groups of voters (the fast growing Non-White voting group, excluding White Hispanics), could be elected President should he be the GOP presidential nominee (it would surely be a fatal mistake, which is self-explanatory) by then or any time down the road, considering that his older brother and current President, George W. Bush (REP), has ruined the reputation of the Bush political dynasty as well as the Republican Party overall. The notion of the anti-affirmative action/anti-civil rights and anti-immigration causes and/or proposals that the GOP has been fighting for will be firmly cemented in the minds of many Black and Latino voters (and/or perhaps, some Asian-American voters, albeit they are a swing-voting group, they are still not likely to decide the election outcome on the national level since their proportion will still be low compared to that of Blacks and Latinos) for a much longer time, which could have dire consequences for the future of the Republican Party by and large. If John McCain (REP) were a Democratic presidential nominee instead of a Republican one, which he is presumptively so, then he would easily be elected the next President of the United States in a landslide without a doubt, considering this year’s overall political environment being pretty much anti-GOP. In other words, McCain is a good man (especially when he has stood up against his own party based on his personal and moral conscience), but he is just in the wrong party at the wrong time. Unless the overall Non-White voters have truly become long-term swing-voters, Republicans can kiss their presidential aspirations good-bye for the next several decades to come.
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