Hillary's campaign is using the "Hillary is inevitable" ploy to try to get the American people to believe that Obama is not a viable option. This is despite the fact that Obama has raised more money than any other Democratic candidate from a record number number of voters.
So, when the national polling numbers are brought out saying that Hillary is ahead, we're supposed to think that Hillary is the heir apparent to the presidential throne, so we should just fold our cards and walk in lockstep with her message.
But Hillary's campaign has some major weaknesses. Hillary is running on being a name-brand, but this will also work against her.
Most people have already made up their minds about Hillary, for better or worse.
People simply do not know about Obama yet. But the more they learn about him, the better they like him. The same cannot be said for Hillary.
And in terms of their campaign, Obama is doing the math and figuring out how he can win the most delegates. This will not be the smooth slam-dunk that Hillary's campaign wants us to believe it will be. From The Washington Post:
Barack Obama sent out an e-mail to supporters on Tuesday announcing plans for a big rally in New York's Washington Square Park on Sept. 27. The invitation was evidence of a campaign planning for a potentially extended battle against Hillary Clinton.
The idea of a protracted contest runs contrary to widespread assumptions about how the 2008 Democratic race may play out. But some analysts, who have studied the new calendar, the rules for allocating convention delegates and the financial resources of the leading candidates, believe that a lengthy contest extending into the megaprimary day of Feb. 5 and beyond may be just as likely....
...Some Obama advisers believe Iowa may not produce a decisive winner, given the competitive three-way race underway there. The same muddled result could occur in New Hampshire. In this scenario, the first four contests fail to decide the nomination.The Feb. 5 primaries and caucuses then become a battle both for victories and for delegates, with delegates allocated proportionally.
Sloan ran some rough projections today to illustrate what might happen on Feb. 5. Assume a three-way race with the top candidate winning 45 percent of the total vote, the second-place finisher winning 33 percent and the third capturing 22 percent. The pledged delegate count would be roughly 884 for the top candidate, 648 for the second candidate and 432 for the third. In a two-person race, with a 54-46 percent split in the overall vote, the delegate count for that day would be 1,060 for the top candidate and 903 for the other.
This is where the Obama invitation for a blowout rally in New York comes into focus. Clinton should win the New York primary on Feb. 5. But in the majority of the state's congressional districts, by winning about 31 percent of the vote, Obama could walk away with two of the five delegates awarded in each. Rather than conceding the state to Clinton and largely staying out, Obama plans to begin building an organization designed to maximize his delegate count there. Clinton, of course, will do the same in Illinois, which also votes on Feb. 5.
Here money becomes especially significant. Only candidates with campaign treasuries of $80 million to $100 million may be able to afford to compete widely in so many states -- a disadvantage for Edwards in particular.
